In 2022, leaders from Evidence In Motion (EIM) made a bold call: the United States was on the verge of a physical therapy (PT) workforce shortage, and higher education needed to get ahead of it.

At the time, that prediction went against the grain. The American Council of Academic Physical Therapy (ACAPT) had urged caution. Their position? Don't expand programs. Don't increase class sizes.  

The concern was a possible oversupply of graduates. But EIM saw it differently.

In an article titled, Challenging Assumptions About the Future Supply and Demand of Physical Therapists in the United States, EIM's leadership argued that popular workforce projections were built on flawed assumptions.  

They challenged the idea that supply equaled demand in 2019, pointing out what providers across the country already knew: clinics were struggling to fill open positions.

EIM called for a new approach, one that accounted for real-world access issues, shifting demographics and the expanding role of physical therapists in value-based care.  

ACAPT has since retracted its warning, and the national data emerging today affirms the very workforce challenges EIM predicted.

A Shortage, Confirmed

In March 2025, the American Physical Therapy Association (APTA) released its updated workforce forecast. The results confirmed what many in the profession have long felt: demand for physical therapists is outpacing supply.

According to the APTA report, the U.S. had a shortage of more than 12,000 full-time equivalent physical therapists in 2022. That's about 5% fewer than needed. The gap is projected to grow to more than 8% by 2027.

Even under baseline projections, which assume steady access and conservative demand growth, the country won't close the gap for at least a decade. And if demand increases due to policy shifts, population growth or expanded practice areas, the shortage could worsen significantly.

For colleges and universities, the message is clear. The need for practice-ready physical therapists is growing, and higher education has a critical role to play.

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Capacity is Already Maxed Out

Data from APTA's 2024 Physical Therapist Workforce Survey paints a stark picture of current conditions. Nearly three-quarters of practicing PTs say they are at or over capacity.

One in four said they had to turn patients away. Another third said they only met demand by working extra hours.

The burnout is real. Administrative burden, low reimbursement rates and student debt were all cited as drivers pushing professionals out of the field. About 5% of survey respondents said they planned to retire or leave the profession within the next year.

There is also a demographic shift coming. Nearly one in four physical therapists will reach retirement age in the next 10 years.  

Without significant investment in education and retention, the shortage is likely to get worse before it gets better.

What Higher Ed Can Do Right Now

This is a moment of opportunity. Institutions that move now to align programs with workforce needs will be positioned as leaders in the next generation of health care education.

Here's what that looks like:

  1. Expand access through modern formats. Hybrid and accelerated pathways are proving they can deliver high-quality education with the flexibility today's students need. These models blend online learning with in-person clinical training, helping students balance work, family and school without sacrificing rigor. ‍
  2. Strengthen clinical partnerships. Securing placements is a growing challenge. Universities should prioritize partnerships with health systems, private practices and community clinics. These relationships are especially critical in underserved regions where access to care and clinical opportunities are both limited. ‍
  3. Invest in faculty and infrastructure. Faculty development is key. Institutions need educators who are clinically grounded, tech-savvy and prepared to teach in hybrid environments. Academic leaders should also invest in digital infrastructure that supports both teaching and student engagement. ‍
  4. Make education more affordable. Student debt remains one of the biggest barriers to entry. Programs should be transparent about costs and advocate for inclusion in federal loan repayment and scholarship programs, especially for students who commit to working in high-need areas. ‍
  5. Use workforce data to drive strategy. Enrollment planning should be informed by regional data and labor market forecasts. Schools in rural and remote areas, where workforce gaps are largest, have a critical opportunity to expand capacity where it's needed most.

A Moment to Lead

The debate over whether there is a physical therapy shortage is over. It's here. It's growing. And the institutions that step up now have a chance to lead the way.

This isn't just about scaling programs. It's about building smart, sustainable models that prepare students for real jobs in a changing health care system. It's about improving access to care.  

EIM's early predictions were met with skepticism. But today, the data tells the story. The profession is evolving, and education must evolve with it.